Who Is Winning the War in Ukraine? Experts Break It Down.
It has been more than 16 months since Russia launched a full-scale attack on Ukraine — but who is winning the war? The answer is certainly not straightforward, according to four experts who spoke to Insider. It is also heavily dependent on the outcome of Ukraine’s counteroffensive and the political situation in Russia, they added. Progress, so far, has been slower than expected, according to some Western officials, although Ukraine has insisted this is deliberate.
While it is still too soon to predict the result with any certainty, there are some areas of the war in which Russia or Ukraine are currently leading. We break them down here:
Territory:
Neither Russia nor Ukraine have achieved the stated objectives they set out at the beginning of the war. Russian officials have repeatedly shifted their goalposts, stating last summer that they also want to capture other regions beyond the Donbas, including Kherson and Zaporizhzhia. From the Russian perspective, they are closer to achieving their objectives because of the territory currently under their control. Russia occupies a significant portion of southeast Ukraine, according to an updated map published by the Institute for the Study of War. On the other hand, Ukraine’s main objective is to liberate all of the occupied territories, including Crimea, which Russia invaded and annexed in 2014. However, experts believe that this objective appears to be unattainable.
Morale:
If you were to judge who is winning the war based on morale, Ukraine would emerge as the victor, according to all four experts. Ukraine’s morale has been high ever since Russia failed to take Kyiv in the first few days of the war. Ukraine’s high morale and stark resistance have forced Russia to make some “huge adjustments” to its military and political leadership. On the other hand, there is a rising number of people, including among the Russian nationalist community, who are starting to express serious doubts about the progress that is being made. This has weakened morale among Russian forces.
Military Victory:
It is difficult to analyze who is currently winning from a military standpoint because a lot hinges on Ukraine’s counteroffensive. Even with the counteroffensive, it is still unclear how effective Ukraine’s training and new Western equipment will be as well as how resilient Russian forces will be. The two sides are relatively balanced, and there haven’t been significant shifts in the frontline for a long time. However, experts believe that Ukraine currently has the advantage due to the success of their counteroffensive last year and the heavy casualties suffered by Russian forces in recent battles.
Negotiations:
At this stage, it is difficult to pinpoint what a victory for Ukraine or Russia would even look like, and all four experts believe the war will drag on for many years. Negotiations also depend on how the counteroffensive pans out. If Ukraine does not achieve significant victories, there may be more pressure from Western governments to push for negotiations. However, public opinion and the political leadership in Ukraine are not expected to change anytime soon, making successful negotiations unlikely in the near term.
In conclusion, the outcome of the war in Ukraine is still uncertain. Both Russia and Ukraine have certain advantages in different aspects of the conflict. The war is likely to continue for the foreseeable future, with negotiations being a distant possibility.
